The Nuclear Club

The Nuclear Club

In 1945, with the dropping of two atomic bombs on Japan, the United States was the first and only member of the Nuclear Club. Russia followed and China came along, too. Over the years, more nations have applied for membership in the club but few were admitted.

The main reason is that reluctance to use nuclear weapons to settle a conflict is a prerequisite, not simply the possession of them. Nuclear weapons are supposed to be a deterrent against attacks or invasions. In addition, the members have to be, if not friendly, at least not hostile to other members.

Ourselves and our allies all have nuclear weapon access. Maybe the weapons aren't within their borders. Maybe they are counting on bigger countries to stockpile the weapons and to release them on an aggressor. But the fact remains that this small club wants to decide who can join and who can't, and it's really not up to them. And why should it be?

By denying entry to the club, they are cutting off potential allies, who may agree not to test, deploy or use those weapons except in extraordinary circumstances. If they aren't part of the club, they don't have to follow any of the rules.

If India wants to turn Pakistan into a parking lot, who's going to stop them? They aren't allowed at the table, so they'll do their own thing. If Pakistan decides that India is a belligerent, rogue state that threatens Pakistan's existence, screw the Golden Rule - “Nuke 'em before they can nuke us!” And the club may protest and tear its hair out, but they'll have only themselves to blame.

This is where the United Nations comes in. As flawed as this organization may be, it's the best hope most of the world has to avoid annihilation of the entire human race. Nuclear non-proliferation is one of their goals. Lots of speakers before the UN have preached on this topic, but the non-nuclear club members are having none of it.

The aim of our age should not be to open the club to more members, but to accept the fact that there are countries out there that will never be admitted, but have these horrific weapons, and will threaten others with them. We should be working to rein them in, while respecting their right to a national defense.

Militaristic states may feel they have a lot to gain by a show of force. Saber-rattling may work for a while, and it allows them to save face and stand their forces down when the offending party offers to suspend military operations or exercises in their area of influence. But they can't be made to lose face by refusing to accede to some token request. Push them hard enough, and the next push will be of a button that lets the missiles fly.

It's like why dogs bite mailmen. From the dog's point of view, every day this guy comes into his yard and fiddles around near the door. The dog barks, and the guy goes away. He returns the next day. The dog barks more, and he goes away. But he keeps coming back. Finally, the dog thinks, “This guy's not getting the message, so I'll have to take it up a notch.”

By acknowledging that the weapons exist, and trying to negotiate a lasting peace, tensions may ease, misunderstandings and slights, real or imagined, might be resolved.

India, Pakistan, and North Korea all have nuclear weapon capability. Delivery is the next hurdle, but not an insurmountable one. North Korea has claimed it can hit anywhere in Asia, and maybe even the West Coast of the United States.

Iran may be the next country to develop such weapons. They have a nuclear program. The Iranians say it is for peaceful use; power generation. But the West and the other nation states in the Middle East are suspicious, and with good reason. Iran has been a country closed to outsiders since the mid 1970's. No independent, verified, assessment of their state of advancement has been offered.

If they get the bomb, Israel had better walk softly. They are the most aggressive opponents of Iran gaining this capability. They have threatened to bomb Iranian nuclear facilities. But Iran doesn't have to play nice. It won't turn the other cheek if Israel hits them.

Then it may be game over for everyone.

UPDATE:
Recently, overtures have been made to Syria and Iran over the use of chemical and nuclear weapons.  Syria was actually convinced to destroy it's chemical weapons.  Iran is making noises about co-operating with the West to prove its peaceful intent for nuclear power. 

These developments are encouraging signs of peace, even if the Teabaggers in the congress want us to blow something up.